Thursday, December 13, 2012

Multiracial Growth Forecast

What will America look like in 2060? Census Bureau has an idea

The headline from a U.S. Census Bureau release on Wednesday gets to the point: “Projections Show a Slower Growing, Older, More Diverse Nation a Half Century from Now.”

The bureau made projections all the way out to 2060, based on figures from the 2010 census. Here’s some of what is expected to be the reality in 2060, presuming, of course, that we survive the Mayan apocalypse next week.

The U.S. population will be 420.3 million om 2060, after hitting the 400 million mark in 2051.
People 65 and over will more than double, to 92 million. Those 85 and over will triple, to 18.2 million.

The youngest baby boomers will be 96, but there will still be 2.4 million of them, all complaining that music was better in their day.

In 2056 it will be the first time there will be more people 65 and older than there are young people 18 and younger.

The non-Hispanic white population is expected to peak in 2024 at 199.6 million. That’s not much more than today, less than 2 million more. After that it’s expected to drop, falling by 20.6 million by 2060.

The number of Hispanics will more than double, from 55.3 million to 128.8 million. That means nearly one in three people in the U.S. will be Hispanic; that figure is one in six today.

The black population is expected to grow from 41.2 million to 61.8 million, up to 14.7 percent of the country.

The Asian population will more than double to 34.4 million, which would be 8.2 percent of the country.

American Indians and Alaska natives will grow from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, while native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders will nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million.

People identifying themselves as being of two or more races will triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million.

By 2043, the U.S. will be a “majority-minority” nation for the first time, though whites will still be the largest single ethnic group. By 2060, minorities – those who are not non-Hispanic whites – will make up 57 percent of the U.S., up from 37 percent today.
Matt Soergel's Blog/


  1. This is so interesting. Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate these type of census forecasts has proven to be?

  2. Not really, KB, but if you keep in mind the fact that the Census Bureau cannot remember to use the accepted and respectful term "Multiracial," I do not put a lot of faith in their forecasts.